레이블이 GAAP Basics인 게시물을 표시합니다. 모든 게시물 표시
레이블이 GAAP Basics인 게시물을 표시합니다. 모든 게시물 표시

2013년 11월 29일 금요일

About 'us gaap accounting standards'|Evolution of US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles - 1930 to 2004







About 'us gaap accounting standards'|Evolution of US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles - 1930 to 2004








I               am               sure               you               have               all               heard               tales               of               accountants               "cooking               the               books".

You've               also               heard               tales               of               management,               along               with               accountants,               playing               "numbers               games"               by               reorganizing               accounting               records               to               smooth               earnings.

In               some               cases,               the               changes               are               blatantly               illegal.

A               good               example               of               this               is               the               WorldCom               scandal               in               which               the               company               capitalized               line               expenses.

This               fraudulently               boosted               their               balance               sheet               by               increasing               assets.

In               addition               the               move               also               fraudulently               boosted               their               income               statement               because               there               were               less               expenses               reported.

What               if               I               told               you               that               companies               and               accountants               can               play               numbers               games               and               make               changes               that               boost               profits               regularly?

Would               you               be               surprised?

(Probably               not.)               Would               you               also               be               surprised               if               I               told               you               there               are               ways               of               playing               these               number               games               that               are               totally               LEGAL?

Yes,               you               heard               me               right.

Sometimes               a               company               can               just               make               some               changes               in               they               way               they               handle               their               transactions.

As               long               as               the               changes               they               make               are               in               accordance               with               generally               accepted               accounting               principles,               they               are               completely               legal.
               Think               about               it:               if               accounting               was               straight               forward               and               cut               and               dry,               we               would               have               no               need               for               CPAs.

I               have               a               vested               interest               in               the               need               for               CPAs,               because               I               am               one.

The               truth               of               the               matter               is               that               many               transactions               are               not               cut               and               dry.

You               actually               need               all               these               accounting               rules               and               disclosures.

United               States               GAAP               is               also               among               one               of               the               world's               more               conservative               set               of               accounting               standards.

This               means               that               typically               a               company's               profits               will               be               lower               when               they               report               under               our               standards               than               they               would               reporting               under               other               sets               of               standards.
               Take               Bank               of               America.

Last               week,               the               US               Government               told               them               that               they               needed               to               raise               $34               BILLION               in               capital.

This               directive               came               after               the               results               of               the               Bank               Stress               Test               which               tested               how               banks               would               fare               with               10%               unemployment               and               a               22%               further               decline               in               home               prices.

However,               Bank               of               America               posted               a               $4.2               Billion               first               quarter               profit.

This               means               that,               at               least               on               paper,               Bank               of               America               earned               $4.2               billion               during               the               first               three               month               period               in               2009.

Seems               like               they               are               doing               pretty               good.
               Are               they               really               doing               as               good               as               they               say?

Probably               not.

A               vast               majority               of               these               profits               are               due               to               accounting               changes.

Basically,               the               profits               are               illusionary               profits.

I               like               to               equate               this               to               smoke               and               mirrors.

Reuters               had               a               really               good               article               this               morning               that               explained               in               greater               detail               the               accounting               changes               that               banks               are               using               to               boost               their               profits.
               Basically,               the               banks               are               using               "credit               value"               adjustments               to               book               gains.

Using               an               example               in               the               Reuters               article,               a               bank               could               have               a               $100               debt               that               currently               trades               for               $60.

They               can               reduce               the               value               of               their               debt               to               the               amount               it               currently               trades               for               -               and               book               a               gain               as               an               offset.

How               can               they               do               this?
               If               you               have               basic               accounting               knowledge               you               know               that               at               the               very               basic               level,               expenses               and               assets               are               debit               balances,               whilst               revenues               and               liabilities               are               credit               balances.

You               also               know               that               debits               =               credits.

Your               books               must               balance.

To               make               the               accounting               entry               to               reduce               the               value               of               the               debt               from               $100               to               $60,               you               would               need               to               debit               the               liability               (debt)               account               by               $40.

You               would               also               need               to               have               a               credit               entry               for               $40               to               make               the               entry               balance.

Your               choices               for               a               credit               are:               revenue               or               liability.

Hmm.

I               wonder               which               one               the               bank               will               choose!
               What               can               we               learn               from               this?

Simple.

If               you               are               invested               in               the               stock               market               you               need               to               know               how               to               read               a               financial               statement.

You               also               have               to               have               a               basic               understanding               of               accounting               principles               and               what               information               you               can               get               from               reading               the               financial               statement               disclosures.

You               can't               just               take               a               press               release               stating               "XYZ               company               earned               $40               billion               last               year"               and               then               invest               in               them               without               knowing               the               entire               situation.
               I               don't               think               people               understand               the               lesson               I               just               mentioned.

As               of               Friday,               bank               stocks               were               trading               up               despite               the               fact               that               our               government               feels               many               of               them               are               ill-prepared               to               weather               the               storm.
               Resources:
               Bank               of               America               Press               Release               
               Reuters






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    About 'us gaap accounting standards'|Global Accounting Standard Covergence







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    In               the               wake               of               the               Great               Recession               (2007-8)               -               a               crisis               largely               of               the               financial               system               -               the               multinational               Basel               Committee               and               the               Group               of               Central               Bank               Governors               and               Heads               of               Supervision,               comprised               of               central               bankers,               banking               supervisors,               and               regulators               more               than               doubled               the               amount               of               equity               (Tier               1)               capital               banks               must               have               to               4.5%.

    Another               2.5%               of               their               assets               must               be               held               as               an               equity               "conservation               buffer"               to               be               amortized               and               deployed               in               case               of               emergency.

    Banks               which               resort               to               the               buffer               must,               however               augment               their               capital               by               any               (legal)               means               possible               (for               instance,               by               not               distributing               dividends,               by               divesting               non-core               assets,               or               by               issuing               new               stock).

    Yet               another               1.5%               of               the               balance               sheet               must               be               held               in               "less-than-equity"               quality               investment               vehicles               and               the               total               leverage               ratio               must               never               go               below               3%               in               equity               (admittedly,               a               liberal               number).
                   Moreover:               regulators               can               impose               the               equivalent               of               yet               another               2.5%               in               risk-weighted               assets               (including               off-balance-sheet               assets,               such               as               derivatives)               in               the               form               of               a               "countercyclical               buffer".

    This               is               intended               to               counter               the               pro-cyclical               nature               of               most               capital               requirements               and               reserves               regimes:               the               more               assets'               prices               rise               (and               commensurate               risks               increase),               the               less               the               capital               set               aside               as               loans               are               deemed               "safer"               by               greedy               bankers               whose               compensation               is               often               tied               to               their               institution's               short-term               performance.
                   The               Basel               III               regime               has               to               be               fully               implemented               by               2019,               a               concession               to               under-capitalized               banking               sectors               in               various               EU               members               (notably               Germany               ).

    Ironically,               the               Basel               Committee               was               created               in               1974,               following               the               failure               of               a               German               bank               and               an               ensuing               near-collapse               of               the               currency               markets.

    Indeed,               the               Basel               regime               is               as               strong               as               its               weakest               link:               multilateralism               has               its               price.

    This               in-built               frailty               forces               the               Committee               to               remain               vague               on               what               constitutes               capital;               on               disclosure               regarding               derivatives;               and               on               the               loaded               issue               of               subordinated               debt               vs.

    corporate               bonds               (subordinated               debt               would               force               banks               to               become               a               lot               more               transparent               and               is               likely               to               foster               shareholder               activism).
                   Banks               are               institutions               where               miracles               happen               regularly.

    We               rarely               entrust               our               money               to               anyone               but               ourselves               -               and               our               banks.

    Despite               a               very               chequered               history               of               mismanagement,               corruption,               false               promises               and               representations,               delusions               and               behavioural               inconsistency               -               banks               still               succeed               to               motivate               us               to               give               them               our               money.

    Partly               it               is               the               feeling               that               there               is               safety               in               numbers.

    The               fashionable               term               today               is               "moral               hazard".

    The               implicit               guarantees               of               the               state               and               of               other               financial               institutions               move               us               to               take               risks               which               we               would,               otherwise,               have               avoided.

    Partly               it               is               the               sophistication               of               the               banks               in               marketing               and               promoting               themselves               and               their               products.

    Glossy               brochures,               professional               computer               and               video               presentations               and               vast,               shrine-like,               real               estate               complexes               all               serve               to               enhance               the               image               of               the               banks               as               the               temples               of               the               new               religion               of               money.
                   But               what               is               behind               all               this?

    How               can               we               judge               the               soundness               of               our               banks?

    In               other               words,               how               can               we               tell               if               our               money               is               safely               tucked               away               in               a               safe               haven?
                   The               reflex               is               to               go               to               the               bank's               balance               sheets.

    Banks               and               balance               sheets               have               been               both               invented               in               their               modern               form               in               the               15th               century.

    A               balance               sheet,               coupled               with               other               financial               statements               is               supposed               to               provide               us               with               a               true               and               full               picture               of               the               health               of               the               bank,               its               past               and               its               long-term               prospects.

    The               surprising               thing               is               that               -               despite               common               opinion               -               it               does.
                   But               it               is               rather               useless               unless               you               know               how               to               read               it.
                   Financial               statements               (Income               -               or               Profit               and               Loss               -               Statement,               Cash               Flow               Statement               and               Balance               Sheet)               come               in               many               forms.

    Sometimes               they               conform               to               Western               accounting               standards               (the               Generally               Accepted               Accounting               Principles,               GAAP,               or               the               less               rigorous               and               more               fuzzily               worded               International               Accounting               Standards,               IAS).

    Otherwise,               they               conform               to               local               accounting               standards,               which               often               leave               a               lot               to               be               desired.

    Still,               you               should               look               for               banks,               which               make               their               updated               financial               reports               available               to               you.

    The               best               choice               would               be               a               bank               that               is               audited               by               one               of               the               Big               Four               Western               accounting               firms               and               makes               its               audit               reports               publicly               available.

    Such               audited               financial               statements               should               consolidate               the               financial               results               of               the               bank               with               the               financial               results               of               its               subsidiaries               or               associated               companies.

    A               lot               often               hides               in               those               corners               of               corporate               holdings.
                   Banks               are               rated               by               independent               agencies.

    The               most               famous               and               most               reliable               of               the               lot               is               Fitch               Ratings.

    Another               one               is               Moody's.

    These               agencies               assign               letter               and               number               combinations               to               the               banks               that               reflect               their               stability.

    Most               agencies               differentiate               the               short               term               from               the               long               term               prospects               of               the               banking               institution               rated.

    Some               of               them               even               study               (and               rate)               issues,               such               as               the               legality               of               the               operations               of               the               bank               (legal               rating).

    Ostensibly,               all               a               concerned               person               has               to               do,               therefore,               is               to               step               up               to               the               bank               manager,               muster               courage               and               ask               for               the               bank's               rating.

    Unfortunately,               life               is               more               complicated               than               rating               agencies               would               have               us               believe.
                   They               base               themselves               mostly               on               the               financial               results               of               the               bank               rated               as               a               reliable               gauge               of               its               financial               strength               or               financial               profile.

    Nothing               is               further               from               the               truth.
                   Admittedly,               the               financial               results               do               contain               a               few               important               facts.

    But               one               has               to               look               beyond               the               naked               figures               to               get               the               real               -               often               much               less               encouraging               -               picture.
                   Consider               the               thorny               issue               of               exchange               rates.

    Financial               statements               are               calculated               (sometimes               stated               in               USD               in               addition               to               the               local               currency)               using               the               exchange               rate               prevailing               on               the               31st               of               December               of               the               fiscal               year               (to               which               the               statements               refer).

    In               a               country               with               a               volatile               domestic               currency               this               would               tend               to               completely               distort               the               true               picture.

    This               is               especially               true               if               a               big               chunk               of               the               activity               preceded               this               arbitrary               date.

    The               same               applies               to               financial               statements,               which               were               not               inflation-adjusted               in               high               inflation               countries.

    The               statements               will               look               inflated               and               even               reflect               profits               where               heavy               losses               were               incurred.

    "Average               amounts"               accounting               (which               makes               use               of               average               exchange               rates               throughout               the               year)               is               even               more               misleading.

    The               only               way               to               truly               reflect               reality               is               if               the               bank               were               to               keep               two               sets               of               accounts:               one               in               the               local               currency               and               one               in               USD               (or               in               some               other               currency               of               reference).

    Otherwise,               fictitious               growth               in               the               asset               base               (due               to               inflation               or               currency               fluctuations)               could               result.
                   Another               example:               in               many               countries,               changes               in               regulations               can               greatly               effect               the               financial               statements               of               a               bank.

    In               1996,               in               Russia,               for               example,               the               Bank               of               Russia               changed               the               algorithm               for               calculating               an               important               banking               ratio               (the               capital               to               risk               weighted               assets               ratio).
                   Unless               a               Russian               bank               restated               its               previous               financial               statements               accordingly,               a               sharp               change               in               profitability               appeared               from               nowhere.
                   The               net               assets               themselves               are               always               misstated:               the               figure               refers               to               the               situation               on               31/12.

    A               48-hour               loan               given               to               a               collaborating               client               can               inflate               the               asset               base               on               the               crucial               date.

    This               misrepresentation               is               only               mildly               ameliorated               by               the               introduction               of               an               "average               assets"               calculus.

    Moreover,               some               of               the               assets               can               be               interest               earning               and               performing               -               others,               non-performing.

    The               maturity               distribution               of               the               assets               is               also               of               prime               importance.

    If               most               of               the               bank's               assets               can               be               withdrawn               by               its               clients               on               a               very               short               notice               (on               demand)               -               it               can               swiftly               find               itself               in               trouble               with               a               run               on               its               assets               leading               to               insolvency.
                   Another               oft-used               figure               is               the               net               income               of               the               bank.

    It               is               important               to               distinguish               interest               income               from               non-interest               income.

    In               an               open,               sophisticated               credit               market,               the               income               from               interest               differentials               should               be               minimal               and               reflect               the               risk               plus               a               reasonable               component               of               income               to               the               bank.

    But               in               many               countries               (Japan,               Russia)               the               government               subsidizes               banks               by               lending               to               them               money               cheaply               (through               the               Central               Bank               or               through               bonds).

    The               banks               then               proceed               to               lend               the               cheap               funds               at               exorbitant               rates               to               their               customers,               thus               reaping               enormous               interest               income.

    In               many               countries               the               income               from               government               securities               is               tax               free,               which               represents               another               form               of               subsidy.

    A               high               income               from               interest               is               a               sign               of               weakness,               not               of               health,               here               today,               gone               tomorrow.

    The               preferred               indicator               should               be               income               from               operations               (fees,               commissions               and               other               charges).
                   There               are               a               few               key               ratios               to               observe.

    A               relevant               question               is               whether               the               bank               is               accredited               with               international               banking               agencies.

    These               issue               regulatory               capital               requirements               and               other               mandatory               ratios.

    Compliance               with               these               demands               is               a               minimum               in               the               absence               of               which,               the               bank               should               be               regarded               as               positively               dangerous.
                   The               return               on               the               bank's               equity               (ROE)               is               the               net               income               divided               by               its               average               equity.

    The               return               on               the               bank's               assets               (ROA)               is               its               net               income               divided               by               its               average               assets.

    The               (tier               1               or               total)               capital               divided               by               the               bank's               risk               weighted               assets               -               a               measure               of               the               bank's               capital               adequacy.

    Most               banks               follow               the               provisions               of               the               Basel               Accord               as               set               by               the               Basel               Committee               of               Bank               Supervision               (also               known               as               the               G10).

    This               could               be               misleading               because               the               Accord               is               ill               equipped               to               deal               with               risks               associated               with               emerging               markets,               where               default               rates               of               33%               and               more               are               the               norm.

    Finally,               there               is               the               common               stock               to               total               assets               ratio.

    But               ratios               are               not               cure-alls.

    Inasmuch               as               the               quantities               that               comprise               them               can               be               toyed               with               -               they               can               be               subject               to               manipulation               and               distortion.

    It               is               true               that               it               is               better               to               have               high               ratios               than               low               ones.

    High               ratios               are               indicative               of               a               bank's               underlying               strength,               reserves,               and               provisions               and,               therefore,               of               its               ability               to               expand               its               business.

    A               strong               bank               can               also               participate               in               various               programs,               offerings               and               auctions               of               the               Central               Bank               or               of               the               Ministry               of               Finance.

    The               larger               the               share               of               the               bank's               earnings               that               is               retained               in               the               bank               and               not               distributed               as               profits               to               its               shareholders               -               the               better               these               ratios               and               the               bank's               resilience               to               credit               risks.
                   Still,               these               ratios               should               be               taken               with               more               than               a               grain               of               salt.

    Not               even               the               bank's               profit               margin               (the               ratio               of               net               income               to               total               income)               or               its               asset               utilization               coefficient               (the               ratio               of               income               to               average               assets)               should               be               relied               upon.

    They               could               be               the               result               of               hidden               subsidies               by               the               government               and               management               misjudgement               or               understatement               of               credit               risks.
                   To               elaborate               on               the               last               two               points:
                   A               bank               can               borrow               cheap               money               from               the               Central               Bank               (or               pay               low               interest               to               its               depositors               and               savers)               and               invest               it               in               secure               government               bonds,               earning               a               much               higher               interest               income               from               the               bonds'               coupon               payments.

    The               end               result:               a               rise               in               the               bank's               income               and               profitability               due               to               a               non-productive,               non-lasting               arbitrage               operation.

    Otherwise,               the               bank's               management               can               understate               the               amounts               of               bad               loans               carried               on               the               bank's               books,               thus               decreasing               the               necessary               set-asides               and               increasing               profitability.

    The               financial               statements               of               banks               largely               reflect               the               management's               appraisal               of               the               business.

    This               has               proven               to               be               a               poor               guide.
                   In               the               main               financial               results               page               of               a               bank's               books,               special               attention               should               be               paid               to               provisions               for               the               devaluation               of               securities               and               to               the               unrealized               difference               in               the               currency               position.

    This               is               especially               true               if               the               bank               is               holding               a               major               part               of               the               assets               (in               the               form               of               financial               investments               or               of               loans)               and               the               equity               is               invested               in               securities               or               in               foreign               exchange               denominated               instruments.
                   Separately,               a               bank               can               be               trading               for               its               own               position               (the               Nostro),               either               as               a               market               maker               or               as               a               trader.

    The               profit               (or               loss)               on               securities               trading               has               to               be               discounted               because               it               is               conjectural               and               incidental               to               the               bank's               main               activities:               deposit               taking               and               loan               making.
                   Most               banks               deposit               some               of               their               assets               with               other               banks.

    This               is               normally               considered               to               be               a               way               of               spreading               the               risk.

    But               in               highly               volatile               economies               with               sickly,               underdeveloped               financial               sectors,               all               the               institutions               in               the               sector               are               likely               to               move               in               tandem               (a               highly               correlated               market).

    Cross               deposits               among               banks               only               serve               to               increase               the               risk               of               the               depositing               bank               (as               the               recent               affair               with               Toko               Bank               in               Russia               and               the               banking               crisis               in               South               Korea               have               demonstrated).
                   Further               closer               to               the               bottom               line               are               the               bank's               operating               expenses:               salaries,               depreciation,               fixed               or               capital               assets               (real               estate               and               equipment)               and               administrative               expenses.

    The               rule               of               thumb               is:               the               higher               these               expenses,               the               weaker               the               bank.

    The               great               historian               Toynbee               once               said               that               great               civilizations               collapse               immediately               after               they               bequeath               to               us               the               most               impressive               buildings.

    This               is               doubly               true               with               banks.

    If               you               see               a               bank               fervently               engaged               in               the               construction               of               palatial               branches               -               stay               away               from               it.
                   Banks               are               risk               arbitrageurs.

    They               live               off               the               mismatch               between               assets               and               liabilities.

    To               the               best               of               their               ability,               they               try               to               second               guess               the               markets               and               reduce               such               a               mismatch               by               assuming               part               of               the               risks               and               by               engaging               in               portfolio               management.

    For               this               they               charge               fees               and               commissions,               interest               and               profits               -               which               constitute               their               sources               of               income.
                   If               any               expertise               is               imputed               to               the               banking               system,               it               is               risk               management.

    Banks               are               supposed               to               adequately               assess,               control               and               minimize               credit               risks.

    They               are               required               to               implement               credit               rating               mechanisms               (credit               analysis               and               value               at               risk               -               VAR               -               models),               efficient               and               exclusive               information-gathering               systems,               and               to               put               in               place               the               right               lending               policies               and               procedures.
                   Just               in               case               they               misread               the               market               risks               and               these               turned               into               credit               risks               (which               happens               only               too               often),               banks               are               supposed               to               put               aside               amounts               of               money               which               could               realistically               offset               loans               gone               sour               or               future               non-performing               assets.

    These               are               the               loan               loss               reserves               and               provisions.

    Loans               are               supposed               to               be               constantly               monitored,               reclassified               and               charges               made               against               them               as               applicable.

    If               you               see               a               bank               with               zero               reclassifications,               charge               offs               and               recoveries               -               either               the               bank               is               lying               through               its               teeth,               or               it               is               not               taking               the               business               of               banking               too               seriously,               or               its               management               is               no               less               than               divine               in               its               prescience.

    What               is               important               to               look               at               is               the               rate               of               provision               for               loan               losses               as               a               percentage               of               the               loans               outstanding.

    Then               it               should               be               compared               to               the               percentage               of               non-performing               loans               out               of               the               loans               outstanding.

    If               the               two               figures               are               out               of               kilter,               either               someone               is               pulling               your               leg               -               or               the               management               is               incompetent               or               lying               to               you.

    The               first               thing               new               owners               of               a               bank               do               is,               usually,               improve               the               placed               asset               quality               (a               polite               way               of               saying               that               they               get               rid               of               bad,               non-performing               loans,               whether               declared               as               such               or               not).

    They               do               this               by               classifying               the               loans.

    Most               central               banks               in               the               world               have               in               place               regulations               for               loan               classification               and               if               acted               upon,               these               yield               rather               more               reliable               results               than               any               management's               "appraisal",               no               matter               how               well               intentioned.
                   In               some               countries               the               Central               Bank               (or               the               Supervision               of               the               Banks)               forces               banks               to               set               aside               provisions               against               loans               at               the               highest               risk               categories,               even               if               they               are               performing.

    This,               by               far,               should               be               the               preferable               method.
                   Of               the               two               sides               of               the               balance               sheet,               the               assets               side               is               the               more               critical.

    Within               it,               the               interest               earning               assets               deserve               the               greatest               attention.

    What               percentage               of               the               loans               is               commercial               and               what               percentage               given               to               individuals?

    How               many               borrowers               are               there               (risk               diversification               is               inversely               proportional               to               exposure               to               single               or               large               borrowers)?

    How               many               of               the               transactions               are               with               "related               parties"?

    How               much               is               in               local               currency               and               how               much               in               foreign               currencies               (and               in               which)?

    A               large               exposure               to               foreign               currency               lending               is               not               necessarily               healthy.

    A               sharp,               unexpected               devaluation               could               move               a               lot               of               the               borrowers               into               non-performance               and               default               and,               thus,               adversely               affect               the               quality               of               the               asset               base.

    In               which               financial               vehicles               and               instruments               is               the               bank               invested?

    How               risky               are               they?

    And               so               on.
                   No               less               important               is               the               maturity               structure               of               the               assets.

    It               is               an               integral               part               of               the               liquidity               (risk)               management               of               the               bank.

    The               crucial               question               is:               what               are               the               cash               flows               projected               from               the               maturity               dates               of               the               different               assets               and               liabilities               -               and               how               likely               are               they               to               materialize.

    A               rough               matching               has               to               exist               between               the               various               maturities               of               the               assets               and               the               liabilities.

    The               cash               flows               generated               by               the               assets               of               the               bank               must               be               used               to               finance               the               cash               flows               resulting               from               the               banks'               liabilities.

    A               distinction               has               to               be               made               between               stable               and               hot               funds               (the               latter               in               constant               pursuit               of               higher               yields).

    Liquidity               indicators               and               alerts               have               to               be               set               in               place               and               calculated               a               few               times               daily.
                   Gaps               (especially               in               the               short               term               category)               between               the               bank's               assets               and               its               liabilities               are               a               very               worrisome               sign.

    But               the               bank's               macroeconomic               environment               is               as               important               to               the               determination               of               its               financial               health               and               of               its               creditworthiness               as               any               ratio               or               micro-analysis.

    The               state               of               the               financial               markets               sometimes               has               a               larger               bearing               on               the               bank's               soundness               than               other               factors.

    A               fine               example               is               the               effect               that               interest               rates               or               a               devaluation               have               on               a               bank's               profitability               and               capitalization.

    The               implied               (not               to               mention               the               explicit)               support               of               the               authorities,               of               other               banks               and               of               investors               (domestic               as               well               as               international)               sets               the               psychological               background               to               any               future               developments.

    This               is               only               too               logical.

    In               an               unstable               financial               environment,               knock-on               effects               are               more               likely.

    Banks               deposit               money               with               other               banks               on               a               security               basis.

    Still,               the               value               of               securities               and               collaterals               is               as               good               as               their               liquidity               and               as               the               market               itself.

    The               very               ability               to               do               business               (for               instance,               in               the               syndicated               loan               market)               is               influenced               by               the               larger               picture.

    Falling               equity               markets               herald               trading               losses               and               loss               of               income               from               trading               operations               and               so               on.
                   Perhaps               the               single               most               important               factor               is               the               general               level               of               interest               rates               in               the               economy.

    It               determines               the               present               value               of               foreign               exchange               and               local               currency               denominated               government               debt.

    It               influences               the               balance               between               realized               and               unrealized               losses               on               longer-term               (commercial               or               other)               paper.

    One               of               the               most               important               liquidity               generation               instruments               is               the               repurchase               agreement               (repo).

    Banks               sell               their               portfolios               of               government               debt               with               an               obligation               to               buy               it               back               at               a               later               date.

    If               interest               rates               shoot               up               -               the               losses               on               these               repos               can               trigger               margin               calls               (demands               to               immediately               pay               the               losses               or               else               materialize               them               by               buying               the               securities               back).
                   Margin               calls               are               a               drain               on               liquidity.

    Thus,               in               an               environment               of               rising               interest               rates,               repos               could               absorb               liquidity               from               the               banks,               deflate               rather               than               inflate.

    The               same               principle               applies               to               leverage               investment               vehicles               used               by               the               bank               to               improve               the               returns               of               its               securities               trading               operations.

    High               interest               rates               here               can               have               an               even               more               painful               outcome.

    As               liquidity               is               crunched,               the               banks               are               forced               to               materialize               their               trading               losses.

    This               is               bound               to               put               added               pressure               on               the               prices               of               financial               assets,               trigger               more               margin               calls               and               squeeze               liquidity               further.

    It               is               a               vicious               circle               of               a               monstrous               momentum               once               commenced.
                   But               high               interest               rates,               as               we               mentioned,               also               strain               the               asset               side               of               the               balance               sheet               by               applying               pressure               to               borrowers.

    The               same               goes               for               a               devaluation.

    Liabilities               connected               to               foreign               exchange               grow               with               a               devaluation               with               no               (immediate)               corresponding               increase               in               local               prices               to               compensate               the               borrower.

    Market               risk               is               thus               rapidly               transformed               to               credit               risk.

    Borrowers               default               on               their               obligations.

    Loan               loss               provisions               need               to               be               increased,               eating               into               the               bank's               liquidity               (and               profitability)               even               further.

    Banks               are               then               tempted               to               play               with               their               reserve               coverage               levels               in               order               to               increase               their               reported               profits               and               this,               in               turn,               raises               a               real               concern               regarding               the               adequacy               of               the               levels               of               loan               loss               reserves.

    Only               an               increase               in               the               equity               base               can               then               assuage               the               (justified)               fears               of               the               market               but               such               an               increase               can               come               only               through               foreign               investment,               in               most               cases.

    And               foreign               investment               is               usually               a               last               resort,               pariah,               solution               (see               Southeast               Asia               and               the               Czech               Republic               for               fresh               examples               in               an               endless               supply               of               them.

    Japan               and               China               are,               probably,               next).
                   In               the               past,               the               thinking               was               that               some               of               the               risk               could               be               ameliorated               by               hedging               in               forward               markets               (=by               selling               it               to               willing               risk               buyers).

    But               a               hedge               is               only               as               good               as               the               counterparty               that               provides               it               and               in               a               market               besieged               by               knock-on               insolvencies,               the               comfort               is               dubious.

    In               most               emerging               markets,               for               instance,               there               are               no               natural               sellers               of               foreign               exchange               (companies               prefer               to               hoard               the               stuff).

    So               forwards               are               considered               to               be               a               variety               of               gambling               with               a               default               in               case               of               substantial               losses               a               very               plausible               way               out.
                   Banks               depend               on               lending               for               their               survival.

    The               lending               base,               in               turn,               depends               on               the               quality               of               lending               opportunities.

    In               high-risk               markets,               this               depends               on               the               possibility               of               connected               lending               and               on               the               quality               of               the               collaterals               offered               by               the               borrowers.

    Whether               the               borrowers               have               qualitative               collaterals               to               offer               is               a               direct               outcome               of               the               liquidity               of               the               market               and               on               how               they               use               the               proceeds               of               the               lending.

    These               two               elements               are               intimately               linked               with               the               banking               system.

    Hence               the               penultimate               vicious               circle:               where               no               functioning               and               professional               banking               system               exists               -               no               good               borrowers               will               emerge.






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      ...more likely to change their type of accounting system from one focused...more likely to use international standards (US GAAP or IAS). Considering...
    10. financialexecutives.blogspot.com/   10/04/2011
      ... Private Co Standards Improvement Council To Modify GAAP For Private Co’s...also: Plan to Simplify US Private Company Accounts by Helen Thomas in the...



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